Modeling Dependent Outages of Electricity Power Plants

Malladi, V and Mendoza-Arriaga, R and Tompaidis, S (2017) Modeling Dependent Outages of Electricity Power Plants. Working Paper. SSRN. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

We propose a novel framework to model dependence of outages of electricity power plants. Our framework allows for commonality in outages to be driven by weather events and fuel shortages. We calibrate our model for power plants in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council regions using a unique dataset of actual outages that we obtained from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. We find strong evidence of dependence in power plant outages both system-wide, and based on the input fuel of the plants. We illustrate the consequences of outage dependence on the reliability of electricity supply for both regions and evaluate policy implications; e.g. the impact of building additional capacity.

Affiliation: Indian School of Business
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Malladi, V
UNSPECIFIED
Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Additional Information: The research article was published by the author with the affiliation of University of Texas at Austin
Uncontrolled Keywords: Markov Chain, Dependent transitions, Subordination, Reliability
Subjects: Operations Management
Depositing User: Mohan Dass
Date Deposited: 09 Apr 2019 07:16
Last Modified: 09 Apr 2019 07:30
URI: http://eprints.exchange.isb.edu/id/eprint/774
Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3051882
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