Understanding DDoS cyber-attacks using social media analytics

Cyber-attacks are cheap, easy to conduct and often pose little risk in terms of attribution, but their impact could be lasting. The low attribution is because tracing cyber-attacks is primitive in the current network architecture. Moreover, even when attribution is known, the absence of enforcement provisions in international law makes cyber attacks tough to litigate, and hence attribution is hardly a deterrent. Rather than attributing attacks, we can re-look at cyber-attacks as societal events associated with social, political, economic and cultural (SPEC) motivations. Because it is possible to observe SPEC motives on the internet, social media data could be valuable in understanding cyber attacks. In this research, we use sentiment in Twitter posts to observe country-to-country perceptions, and Arbor Networks data to build ground truth of country-to-country DDoS cyber-attacks. Using this dataset, this research makes three important contributions: a) We evaluate the impact of heightened sentiments towards a country on the trend of cyber-attacks received by the country. We find that, for some countries, the probability of attacks increases by up to 27% while experiencing negative sentiments from other nations. b) Using cyber-attacks trend and sentiments trend, we build a decision tree model to find attacks that could be related to extreme sentiments. c) To verify our model, we describe three examples in which cyber-attacks follow increased tension between nations, as perceived in social media.