Relating entertainment features in screenplays to movie performance: an empirical investigation

The performance of entertainment products depends on their ability to transport the audience into the narrative. Deriving entertainment features (imagery and display of emotions) from screenplays, we empirically test the theory-inspired conceptual framework. The proposed framework details the nonlinear effects of imagery and display of emotions and their synergistic effects on box office performance. We correct for the sample selection bias using a sample of unproduced and produced screenplays as well as for the endogeneity due to the omitted variable bias. The results show that the increase in the relative number of characters and dialogs, decrease in scene pace, and increases in emotionality and positivity improve the box office return on investment (ROI) at a decreasing rate. A 1% desired change in entertainment features corresponds to a 1.97% increase in ROI, which is equivalent to a $1.24 million increase in revenue (assuming an average budget). Overall, this study enables film studios to identify and craft screenplays that have the potential to perform well in the box office.